Within the last three months, the Israel-Gaza conflict has developed on both military and humanitarian fronts as new actors become increasingly entrenched and Israeli policy on aid to Gaza and the West Bank shifts. Recent changes in leadership after the deaths of Hamas and Hezbollah figureheads may also alter the direction of the conflict. 

Killing of Hamas leader 

  Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ top political official since 2017, is believed to have orchestrated the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. His death marks a significant loss for Hamas as fighting continues. He was found in a damaged building by Israeli forces on Oct. 16, 2024 and subsequently killed. 

Reşat Kasaba (he/him), the director of the postdoctoral Middle East Studies program at the University of Washington, said that Sinwar’s popularity among many Palestinians skyrocketed after the Oct. 7 attack. He became a kind of hero in Gaza for inflicting such damage on Israel, Kasaba said. Sinwar’s death may have weakened Hamas’ leadership structure, but it’s possible Hamas had been struggling with centralized communication even before his death. There have been multiple Gaza-wide communications blackouts since the war began, and the actual state of Hamas’ leadership is not widely known.  

“(Sinwar’s) loss is important, but people also say that over this year, so much has changed that a lot of the centralized controls, channels of communications (and) tunnels are destroyed now, so there are a lot of local leaders who are making decisions…there is really no central authority to deal with for negotiations for release of the hostages,” Kasaba said. 

This disorganization may interfere with negotiations between Hamas and Israel, Kasaba said, and some fear that negotiations will be impeded by Hamas’ loss of such a prominent leader. After confirming that Israeli forces had killed Sinwar, Hamas political officials released a statement conveying a message of continued strength. It’s unclear who Sinwar’s successor may be. His brother Mohammed Sinwar, Hamas’s former political chief Khaled Meshaal, his former deputy Khalil al-Hayya, and the deputy chief of Hamas’s political office, Mousa Abu Marzouk, remain top possibilities.  

Iranian involvement 

On Oct. 1, Iran launched between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles on both military and civilian targets within Israel, with the majority of these missiles being intercepted by Israeli defenses. Iran said these attacks were retaliation against Israel for the Sept. 27 assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. On Oct. 26, Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran in an operation consisting of multiple waves over a three-hour period, according to the Institute for the Study of War. 

While there hasn’t been an official military response from Iran following the attack, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised a “crushing response” to Israeli attacks.

Iran has also worked to engage Israel through proxies. Hezbollah, which is separate from but closely tied to the Iranian government, acts as a “partner force” to Tehran, according to the Congressional Research Service. Kasaba said that the Iranian government feels as if it’s surrounded by enemies, thus pushing them to increase involvement and support certain armed groups in the region in order to maintain their political influence.

“Over the years, they supported a number of organizations in the Middle East,” Kasaba said. “Hezbollah in Lebanon is one of them. By giving them money and weapons, they supported Syria as another ally, and also supported groups in Yemen, Houthis and also Hamas.”

Devices Detonate in Lebanon

In a relatively recent incident of violence in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, on Sept. 17 and 18, thousands of handheld communication devices exploded throughout Lebanon, killing over 30 and injuring over 3,000 people. The affected devices included walkie-talkies, pagers and mobile phones. While Israel has not commented on the attack, intelligence experts from the U.S. and other countries have credited them with it, and they have not denied the allegations. Kasaba said that the Israeli government intends to weaken Iran, and by extension, Hezbollah, as the conflict continues. He said that sending incendiary mobile devices to damage Hezbollah’s communication network was effective, but harsh. 

“Some elements in Israeli government are trying to use this as an opportunity to re-map the Middle East and create a more friendly environment for Israel,” Kasaba said. “One of (the objectives) is to really destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon.” 

The attacks disrupted communications across Lebanon and sparked panic as civilians scrambled to check their devices for explosives. 

On Oct. 30, Israel ordered its first city-wide evacuation for its offensive in Lebanon, warning residents of the city of Baalbek to leave. Later that day, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in the city, killing 19, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The conflict in Lebanon continues to expand. 

Banning of the UNRWA 

On Oct. 30, the Israeli Parliament passed legislation after a 92-10 vote to not only ban the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East from operating on sovereign Israeli territory, but to also cut off any communication between UNRWA staff and members of the Israeli government. This will increase difficulties for the UNRWA to distribute humanitarian aid in Gaza and the West Bank when the legislation comes into effect on Jan. 26, 2025. 

This legislation is a result of Israeli claims that hundreds of UNRWA employees are members of terrorist organizations and that dozens participated directly in the Oct. 7 attack alongside Hamas. The UN launched internal investigations and subsequently fired nine members of the UNRWA but said they did not find enough evidence to take further action. Israel has said it will continue to provide humanitarian aid to Palestinians. 

“Banning this organization will mean that much more hardship for Palestinians, because already their hospitals, their universities, schools, basic services, sanitation, all of those are really compromised very severely,” Kasaba said. “So this is, for people, a very ominous, bad step. But from the Israeli perspective, they see this organization as a way in which these militants were penetrating and then undermining Israel’s interests.” 

Students Response

On Oct. 30, the Jewish Student Union and Muslim Student Association held a joint meeting to discuss the similarities between the two religions. Senior and MSA co-president Yameena Shameem (she/her) and JSU co-president junior Emily Pranzini (she/her) said that the collaboration is important to show the Inglemoor community that in the face of conflict and terror, there can still be unity.

“There’s so much conflict in the world and so much hate between the religions and between different countries in the Middle East, and so I think it’s really important for our school to show that we all love each other,” Pranzini said. “There’s so much similarity between us, so it’s really kind of contradicting to hate someone that’s so similar to you, and it just really helps build community and connection at our school.”